On July 11 every year the World Population Day is observed. As the day approaches, the World Population Prospects 2022 report of the UN is worth looking at. Primarily for the projection that in 2023, India’s population would surpass China, and it already has! The report that came out after a gap of two years, brings focus on many other equally enlightening issues.

After reaching 8 billion in November 2022, the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. More than half of the projected increase between 2022 and 2050 is likely to come from just eight countries – Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania. The growth rates will differ across regions in the world, and sub-Saharan Africa would account for more than half of the growth of the world’s population between 2022 and 2050. For many countries the share of population at working ages (between 25 – 64 years) has been increasing or the numbers are gradually declining. However, the opportunity of reaping the ‘demographic dividend’ remain.

As the absolute numbers on the planet grow, the rate of growth of the number of people has slowed down. The world population was growing the fastest in the period 1962-1965, when it was increasing on average by 2.1 per cent per year. Since then, the pace of population growth has slowed owing to reduced levels of fertility. In 2020, the rate of population growth fell below 1 per cent per year and it is projected to continue to slow through the end of this century. As per the NFHS-5, India too now has a Total Fertility Rate of 2.0, which is below the replacement level.

In the next thirty years more than 61 countries, will see a decrease of 1 percent or more in their population. Maybe Elon Musk’s repeated cautions about an imminent ‘population collapse’ on the planet are ahead of time, but cannot be dismissed!

Apart from mortality and fertility, international migration too impacts population numbers. Over the next few decades, migration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries, as the number of deaths will progressively exceed the number of births. On the other hand, low-income and lower middle-income countries will add numbers by an excess of births over deaths. The COVID pandemic is estimated to have led to a loss of 1.7 years of life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2021.

However, globally by 2050, life expectancy is likely to go up to average longevity of around 77.2 years.  In 2018, for the first time the number of people aged 65 and above were more than children under five. People 65 years or above are projected to rise from 10% of world population in 2022 to 16 % in 2050. Further, women outnumber men at older ages in almost all populations. In this perspective, the UN is observing the decade of Healthy Ageing from 2021-2030. The effort is to change how we think, feel and act towards age, foster the abilities of older persons, promote health, deliver integrated care and services responsive to older persons,

The population prospects described throw up some important issues for countries across the world. Certain regions would need to pursue policies to reap the emerging or closing era of the demographic dividend. Their human capital would need access to health care and quality education, and opportunities for productive employment. While others would have to prepare for mature populations and the social and policy challenges that come with it.