Sometime ago, a start-up founder opined on X that ‘data speed in a community is correlated to decline in birth rate’. True or not, it puts focus on something that is grabbing headlines these days. The projection that South Korea may become one of the first nations to disappear on account of a fertility crisis was closely followed by statements of Indian politicians expressing the importance of having at least three children.

The coming global demographic transition – declining fertility rates – is engaging everyone. According to the World Bank, the global fertility rate was 2.3 children per woman in 2022, down from 4.7 in 1950. Countries in the developed world have even lower rates. South Korea, where alarm bells are ringing, had a record low fertility rate of 0.72 children per woman in 2023, which is expected to fall further to 0.6 this year. The only part of the globe where fertility is still high is Sub-Saharan Africa.  In India, as per the NFHS the fertility rate was 2, down from 6 in the 1950s, and is expected to follow the global trend of further decline.

A nation needs 2.1 children per woman to have a replacement level of fertility. Anything less implies that soon more people will die than are being born, leading to a decline in population. If current forecasts play out, 2064 will be the first year in centuries when fewer babies will be born than people die. The world’s fertility rate will be 1.7. Only two Pacific islands and four African countries will be above replacement level.  Elon Musk warns repeatedly that declining global fertility rates “will lead to mass extinction of entire nations.”

The economic and social consequences of declining population are manifold. The biggest problem is that there will be no working age population to support the cohort of elders. Growth which is often said to be dependent on new ideas is also projected to decline, as ideas and innovations are associated with younger people.

Many developed countries have tried to tackle declining birth rates through incentives for having babies. However, research has shown that these have not impacted the birth rate significantly. Focus in countries like China, Russia and Hungary has shifted pro-natal incentives to younger and working-class women, rather than middle-class professional women.

Immigration from people-rich countries is another solution that is offered. But this is fraught with political pressures. Further, in the future as the global population shrinks there will be fewer people to import.

Prioritising helping populations to age healthily, coupled with older people working till later is important. Singapore provides incentives to companies to hire mature workers, and also reskills older people. Invention and adoption of new technology that keeps productivity high with fewer people is also important. Technology may also help caring for the old, and new household technologies may help parents.

Whether technology is spurring declining birth rates or it will help tide over the greying of the world is debatable. Along with the invasion of technology, the threat of climate change, the coming demographic transition is an added challenge for the global order is now more or less a certainty. The world needs to prepare accordingly.

Published in Marathi in Sakaal newspaper on 13-12-2024